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COVID-19 Tournament


How accurate are scientists’ predictions of societal change after COVID-19? The goal of the Forecasting Collaborative is to investigate how scientists predict cultural change after COVID-19. We are interested in the following variables and will provide corresponding data from the last 3 years:

  • Life satisfaction.
  • Affective well-being (positive and negative).
  • Political polarization.
  • Ideological preferences (Democrat and Republican).
  • Bias towards Asian-Americans (implicit and explicit).
  • Bias towards African Americans (implicit and explicit).
  • Gender-career bias (implicit and explicit).

We seek numerical forecasts for the next 12 months, using data we provide for the last 42 months. These forecasts can be generated via method of your choice (e.g., general intuition or theory, data-modelling, or some other mix). To start forecasting, please see our instructions page.

Project Stages

Stage 1:               First round of submissions (Complete; May 2020)

Stage 2:               New and updated forecast submissions (Opens November 15th 2020)

Stage 3:               Summary and write-up of results (May 2021)